Live / on-chain
#4683 LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - L P=0.58#4682 LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - L P=0.67#4681 Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? P=0.55#4680 Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from P=0.58#4679 Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? P=0.48#4678 Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? P=0.52#4677 Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? P=0.47#4676 Will the Fed increase interest rates by P=0.52#4675 Will the Fed increase interest rates by P=0.50#4674 Will the Fed increase interest rates by P=0.52#4673 GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? P=0.52#4672 GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? P=0.57#4671 GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? P=0.52#4670 GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? P=0.50#4669 GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? P=0.44#4668 GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? P=0.52#4667 GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? P=0.52#4666 GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? P=0.58#4665 Belgium vs IR Iran Winner? P=0.57#4664 Belgium vs IR Iran Winner? P=0.68#4683 LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - L P=0.58#4682 LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - L P=0.67#4681 Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? P=0.55#4680 Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from P=0.58#4679 Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? P=0.48#4678 Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? P=0.52#4677 Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? P=0.47#4676 Will the Fed increase interest rates by P=0.52#4675 Will the Fed increase interest rates by P=0.50#4674 Will the Fed increase interest rates by P=0.52#4673 GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? P=0.52#4672 GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? P=0.57#4671 GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? P=0.52#4670 GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? P=0.50#4669 GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? P=0.44#4668 GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? P=0.52#4667 GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? P=0.52#4666 GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? P=0.58#4665 Belgium vs IR Iran Winner? P=0.57#4664 Belgium vs IR Iran Winner? P=0.68
x402 oracle · Arc Testnet · ~$0.0007 / receipt
The trace is the product.
ReasoningReceipt is a paid oracle for Polymarket and Kalshi. Pay a few cents of USDC over x402, get a probability — plus a byte-verifiable, Merkle-rooted reasoning DAG committed to Arc. Not a hash of an opaque blob. The whole chain-of-thought. Auditable, leaf by leaf.
receipts on chain
4,683
distinct markets
254
distinct consumers
19
per-receipt gas
0.0007 usdc
01 · the debate
Five agents debate. Two stamp.
Bull, Bear, Edge run in parallel with isolated context. A supervisor merges weighted-Bayesian. A critic audits across six rigor dimensions. ~21% of receipts fail the gate and never reach the chain.
Bull
Argues YES · Gemini Flash · isolated context
YES · 0.62
FOMC futures already price in a 56% cut probability; chair Powell's last presser tilts dovish.
- ✓CME FedWatch · 56% implied for May cutcmegroup.com
- ✓FOMC March minutes · two dot-plot dovish shiftsfederalreserve.gov
- ✓Core PCE trailing 12m at 2.7%, inside trendbea.gov
0.62yes
Bear
Argues NO · Gemini Flash · isolated context
NO · 0.34
Sticky services inflation + tight labor → Fed holds. Cut implied prob is overpriced by retail flow.
- ✗Services CPI re-accelerating month-over-monthbls.gov
- ✗JOLTS holding above 8M openingsbls.gov
- ✗Williams (NY Fed): 'no rush' speech, April 11nyfed.org
0.34no
Edge
Surfaces tail risks · Gemini Flash
Tail · 0.48
Geopolitical oil shock or banking-sector wobble could force an off-script intermeeting cut.
- △Iran-Israel escalation · WTI repricing riskreuters
- △Regional bank CRE write-downs Q2fdic.gov
- △Past intermeeting precedent: 2008, 2020historical
0.48tail
Supervisor
Weighted-Bayesian merge · Gemini Pro · low temp
Weighting Bull 0.42, Bear 0.38, Edge 0.20. Falsifiable claim: cut requires next CPI ≤ 2.5%.
- ·weights ∈ [0.1, 0.7], sum = 1.0
- ·disagreement_pp = 28pp (bull − bear)
- ·calibration prior: macro Brier 0.184 (last 30d)
0.58merged
Critic
ARA 6-dim audit · Gemini Flash
Evidence relevance and falsifiability both above 0.7. Methodology spotless.
evidence_relevance
falsifiability
scope
coherence
exploration_integrity
methodology
⌐ Approved · emit
Total receipts
4,683
On Arc + indexed locally
USDC settled
$0.1800
Sum across paid queries
Markets priced
254
Distinct prediction markets
Consumers
19
Distinct payer addresses
Receipts over the visible window
100 receipts
Live receipts
| # | Market | Prob | Conf | Schema | When | On chain | Trace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4683 | LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI | 58.0% | 68% | v3·42pp | 17m ago | 0xead3f4e7… | open → |
| 4682 | LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI | 67.0% | 68% | v3·42pp | 48m ago | 0x42cdf5c2… | open → |
| 4681 | Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? | 55.0% | 42% | v3·53pp | 1h ago | 0x1cffa848… | open → |
| 4680 | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? | 58.0% | 68% | v3·40pp | 2h ago | 0x94c268ea… | open → |
| 4679 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? | 48.0% | 57% | v3·40pp | 3h ago | 0x43677ac0… | open → |
| 4678 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? | 52.0% | 58% | v3·50pp | 3h ago | 0x88d8eed1… | open → |
| 4677 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? | 47.0% | 55% | v3·45pp | 4h ago | 0xe4dbf3d7… | open → |
| 4676 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | 52.0% | 65% | v3·42pp | 5h ago | 0xe098ee5a… | open → |
| 4675 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | 50.0% | 52% | v3·40pp | 5h ago | 0x81699488… | open → |
| 4674 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | 52.0% | 58% | v3·35pp | 6h ago | 0x5d798aa2… | open → |
| 4673 | GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? | 52.0% | 65% | v3·44pp | 6h ago | 0xd2aaa900… | open → |
| 4672 | GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? | 57.0% | 62% | v3·48pp | 7h ago | 0x19424361… | open → |
| 4671 | GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? | 52.0% | 58% | v3·38pp | 8h ago | 0x6659d09c… | open → |
| 4670 | GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? | 50.0% | 52% | v3·38pp | 8h ago | 0xf08e4dc1… | open → |
| 4669 | GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? | 44.0% | 65% | v3·40pp | 9h ago | 0x54d1d1d0… | open → |
| 4668 | GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? | 52.0% | 68% | v3·43pp | 9h ago | 0x64f2582b… | open → |
| 4667 | GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? | 52.0% | 65% | v3·30pp | 11h ago | 0x14c5d4b5… | open → |
| 4666 | GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? | 58.0% | 65% | v3·42pp | 12h ago | 0xebbedd2b… | open → |
| 4665 | Belgium vs IR Iran Winner? | 57.0% | 68% | v3·35pp | 12h ago | 0xbb110893… | open → |
| 4664 | Belgium vs IR Iran Winner? | 68.0% | 65% | v3·35pp | 13h ago | 0xc5e57e84… | open → |
| 4663 | LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs | 57.0% | 58% | v3·33pp | 13h ago | 0x8424f2bd… | open → |
| 4662 | Belgium vs IR Iran Winner? | 65.0% | 62% | v3·37pp | 14h ago | 0xde35a984… | open → |
| 4661 | Belgium vs IR Iran Winner? | 63.0% | 68% | v3·48pp | 14h ago | 0xe11ad5a5… | open → |
| 4660 | Belgium vs IR Iran Winner? | 63.0% | 72% | v3·43pp | 15h ago | 0x59d0bade… | open → |
| 4659 | Belgium vs IR Iran Winner? | 61.0% | 55% | v3·35pp | 15h ago | 0x7505b712… | open → |
| 4658 | Belgium vs IR Iran Winner? | 57.0% | 62% | v3·40pp | 16h ago | 0xb78ce179… | open → |
| 4657 | Spain vs Saudi Arabia Winner? | 65.0% | 62% | v3·40pp | 17h ago | 0xc51c66a6… | open → |
| 4656 | Spain vs Saudi Arabia Winner? | 83.0% | 76% | v3·63pp | 18h ago | 0xc15712d3… | open → |
| 4655 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? | 55.0% | 62% | v3·30pp | 18h ago | 0x17cb2513… | open → |
| 4654 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? | 45.0% | 62% | v3·54pp | 19h ago | 0x59e9aa97… | open → |