Iran closes its airspace by May 18?

Receipt #2360 — settled on Arc.

Probability

46.0%

Confidence

70.0%

Loading reasoning trace from Irys…

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Pull the trace JSON from Irys, re-canonicalise, re-hash, compare to the value bound on Arc. Anyone can re-run this client-side.

Market id

2241871

Source

polymarket

Trace hash

0x97b92cda1978efd955a62470027de6d130c4c41558ffbc3eefcd218c4e8062d7

Trace CID

ar://5XhpeCoXyLpuPyHPFDwG91xKKLiCo9Pfd49nVSW7aED8

Arc tx

0x4c2149f409a180036a0eac708ee8e978bca0473c7c9d0d15244a8abe7b3c27b0

Consumer

—

Paid

0.000000 USDC

Created

2026-05-14 08:51:01 UTC

The full reasoning trace lives at the CID above (Irys / IPFS-compatible). The hash on Arc binds this row to the exact JSON that the analyst produced.