Will Trump Insult Xi this week?

Receipt #2409 — settled on Arc.

Probability

42.0%

Confidence

65.0%

Loading reasoning trace from Irys…

Verify trace

Pull the trace JSON from Irys, re-canonicalise, re-hash, compare to the value bound on Arc. Anyone can re-run this client-side.

Market id

2232159

Source

polymarket

Trace hash

0xae29800a3efdf2edfd2e9cb0d032ef7e0c4e8913a2cf437eb1fc4d5519bd77c9

Trace CID

ar://5JYHR4noHxiR2wogngdKfYaZQhLaW5Wq7hCfHj3kiuqL

Arc tx

0x42543b01b835e7dd6d65b7dad4ac68352957b1c9cfa225b0a357e486169cfeae

Consumer

—

Paid

0.000000 USDC

Created

2026-05-14 09:51:42 UTC

The full reasoning trace lives at the CID above (Irys / IPFS-compatible). The hash on Arc binds this row to the exact JSON that the analyst produced.