Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?

Receipt #4564 — settled on Arc.

Probability

69.0%

Confidence

65.0%

Loading reasoning trace from Irys…

Verify trace

Pull the trace JSON from Irys, re-canonicalise, re-hash, compare to the value bound on Arc. Anyone can re-run this client-side.

Market id

2308195

Source

polymarket

Trace hash

0xf916422f14d8139ed1f599da97f6ef7769e8845ececd6bcc959af58d11da3323

Trace CID

ar://CV3hajnV6YQrZFQGg3RPinj7Toxj3jxs6QVuzRCTNs5a

Arc tx

0xbc1ef86fe8e0f9894c9fc94ec5be7372c478d8e79206dfa2b77fcb83031c75bc

Consumer

—

Paid

0.000000 USDC

Created

2026-05-22 12:18:47 UTC

The full reasoning trace lives at the CID above (Irys / IPFS-compatible). The hash on Arc binds this row to the exact JSON that the analyst produced.