Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?

Receipt #4571 — settled on Arc.

Probability

48.0%

Confidence

55.0%

Loading reasoning trace from Irys…

Verify trace

Pull the trace JSON from Irys, re-canonicalise, re-hash, compare to the value bound on Arc. Anyone can re-run this client-side.

Market id

2308202

Source

polymarket

Trace hash

0x6c98424aa251f765b523a4b3dc52e7caf452fb0c31e01704688ea0c645209e44

Trace CID

ar://Fx3jpNoucY6oAtJGJNp2o2AvVpCnEmo1NS6rBvsijqyG

Arc tx

0xdb616bb6b3f8d7f266e33b7d7e8fd662c1c8a84312b78134f9c78705b9afd6b4

Consumer

—

Paid

0.000000 USDC

Created

2026-05-23 12:14:08 UTC

The full reasoning trace lives at the CID above (Irys / IPFS-compatible). The hash on Arc binds this row to the exact JSON that the analyst produced.