Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?

Receipt #4572 — settled on Arc.

Probability

60.0%

Confidence

65.0%

Loading reasoning trace from Irys…

Verify trace

Pull the trace JSON from Irys, re-canonicalise, re-hash, compare to the value bound on Arc. Anyone can re-run this client-side.

Market id

2308202

Source

polymarket

Trace hash

0x781e4351b4e684a1534df41c73d1d3d4ff93f380aabe00d20b030bf633f2b016

Trace CID

ar://EgANk4nM69YFYzH7Q5Jqh9rdBU7mMCmtWGCxFAZaTKPJ

Arc tx

0x5891734ca6de53b5864e2085be77502825923ef5083dd5af80fc2a16aebdb236

Consumer

—

Paid

0.000000 USDC

Created

2026-05-23 12:44:39 UTC

The full reasoning trace lives at the CID above (Irys / IPFS-compatible). The hash on Arc binds this row to the exact JSON that the analyst produced.