Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026?

Receipt #4586 — settled on Arc.

Probability

58.0%

Confidence

68.0%

Loading reasoning trace from Irys…

Verify trace

Pull the trace JSON from Irys, re-canonicalise, re-hash, compare to the value bound on Arc. Anyone can re-run this client-side.

Market id

KXRECNCH-26-JUL03

Source

kalshi

Trace hash

0x3c1ebb6e954500ff1f2d989e8177419064a59c13e7d59abad7366c6b9dd8211c

Trace CID

ar://HLPtEe9LfmKERxirhC7yrVDnpZ4dUHxyL7edffeiQy5F

Arc tx

0x75ba48e4850750f46de06b7f06ae56249ed3fcb2b714a05d395e54e0a92ffea1

Consumer

—

Paid

0.000000 USDC

Created

2026-06-03 10:57:11 UTC

The full reasoning trace lives at the CID above (Irys / IPFS-compatible). The hash on Arc binds this row to the exact JSON that the analyst produced.