Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026?

Receipt #4587 — settled on Arc.

Probability

57.0%

Confidence

68.0%

Loading reasoning trace from Irys…

Verify trace

Pull the trace JSON from Irys, re-canonicalise, re-hash, compare to the value bound on Arc. Anyone can re-run this client-side.

Market id

KXRECNCH-26-JUL03

Source

kalshi

Trace hash

0x788dd46082cd88c9de2d8603b65dd122837b4c6c953058d52b23cb51420407e1

Trace CID

ar://HHtAg1A5QbSZLuE4DLJAJn3nZRk1Ps7t2eRN2uVFth2q

Arc tx

0xceddee2bad331e484383064429918a0ce835da4d1e2b30d159e067d313c8a31e

Consumer

—

Paid

0.000000 USDC

Created

2026-06-03 11:28:53 UTC

The full reasoning trace lives at the CID above (Irys / IPFS-compatible). The hash on Arc binds this row to the exact JSON that the analyst produced.