Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026?

Receipt #4603 — settled on Arc.

Probability

54.0%

Confidence

60.0%

Loading reasoning trace from Irys…

Verify trace

Pull the trace JSON from Irys, re-canonicalise, re-hash, compare to the value bound on Arc. Anyone can re-run this client-side.

Market id

KXRECNCH-26-JUL03

Source

kalshi

Trace hash

0x59556d3d412538b0d096cfa3bbed973ddc55dda0a158232d69d974a2cc86836c

Trace CID

ar://9nRvxAsrY6EzjykEX9QYTRp1RgvsdKfMYoTPUfwdJxYg

Arc tx

0xba6e323f9966483e0e509795fbd87fd5cfd47b5e4b223719a4da16aac01edc5b

Consumer

—

Paid

0.000000 USDC

Created

2026-06-04 00:37:06 UTC

The full reasoning trace lives at the CID above (Irys / IPFS-compatible). The hash on Arc binds this row to the exact JSON that the analyst produced.